2026 Housing Market Outlook: A Steadier, More Balanced Year Ahead
Market data and forecast courtesy of Realtor.com®
After several roller-coaster years in real estate, 2026 is shaping up to be the year the market finally takes a breath. According to Realtor.com’s newly released 2026 Housing Forecast, conditions are slowly shifting toward a more balanced, more predictable environment — something buyers, sellers, and renters have all been waiting for.
As someone who tracks the market daily here in New Smyrna Beach and surrounding areas, I can tell you: these trends matter. They affect your buying power, your selling strategy, and your long-term planning. And for once, the news leans positive.
Mortgage Rates Ease and Affordability Improves
Realtor.com® projects the average 30-year mortgage rate to hover around 6.3% in 2026 — a slight but meaningful improvement from 2025. Pair that with rising incomes, and the typical monthly mortgage payment is finally expected to dip below 30% of median income for the first time since 2022.
That’s a milestone.
It doesn’t mean buying becomes “easy,” but it does mean the pressure is cooling off. And in a market that’s been red-hot for years, cooler is welcome.
Inventory Continues to Grow
For the third year in a row, the number of homes for sale is expected to rise — up 8.9% nationally.
We’re still not back to pre-2020 inventory levels, but by the end of 2026, the gap shrinks to around 12%, a huge improvement from the nearly 30% shortage we saw in recent years. More homes on the market means more options, more negotiating room, and a better overall experience for buyers.
This also means sellers need to approach pricing and presentation wisely — something I help my clients navigate every day.
Home Prices Rise Modestly — But Buyers Gain Ground
Realtor.com® expects home prices to increase by 2.2%, building on smaller gains from 2025. However, inflation is predicted to rise faster, meaning inflation-adjusted home prices actually decline slightly for the second year in a row.
Translation:
Prices are inching up, but buyers are getting more leverage.
Renters Finally Catch a Break
If you’re renting — or thinking about investing in rental property — this part matters:
Realtor.com® expects rents to fall about 1% nationally in 2026, with even larger drops possible in the South and West thanks to strong multifamily construction.
Vacancy rates are climbing back toward normal levels, giving renters more choice and easing the sticker shock we’ve seen since the pandemic.
Home Sales Inch Up, but the Lock-In Effect Remains
Existing home sales are projected to rise 1.7% to about 4.13 million. It’s progress, but we’re still well below historical norms.
A big reason?
Roughly 80% of mortgage-holding homeowners currently have a rate below 6%. That “golden handcuff” keeps many people in place unless life changes — new jobs, downsizing, or relocating — force a move.
This trend is expected to stick around through 2026, keeping turnover relatively low even as conditions improve.
Risks That Could Shift the Market
Realtor.com® notes several factors that could nudge the market one way or another:
Inflation and energy costs
Fed policy changes
Labor market softening
Shifts in consumer confidence
Trade and fiscal policy changes
Nothing points to a recession, but the economy is in a delicate balancing act.
What This Means for You
2026 won’t be a dramatic reset — but it will bring meaningful progress toward a healthier, more balanced real estate landscape.
If you’ve been waiting for:
✔ more inventory
✔ slightly lower mortgage payments
✔ more negotiating room
✔ or a calmer, predictable market…
…2026 may be your year.
And whether you’re buying, selling, downsizing, or just planning ahead, I’m here to guide you through every step with clear, local insight and top-tier marketing — including photography that helps your home shine.
Thinking about making a move in 2026? Let’s talk.
I’m always happy to walk through your options, no pressure, and help you build a smart plan in a market that’s finally beginning to tilt back toward balance.
Market data provided by Realtor.com®.
